Will China overtake US power in 20 years?

Big Picture forecasts China overtaking the US in GDP in 20 years.
Resource competition for econmic growth will dominate relations over this time. I think China has a good story simply because of the size of their population. I am less optimistic because their one child policy means that 12% of their population will be over 65 in 20 years. On the other hand anti-aging technology may net them a win here in any case.

I’d be more interested in forecasts of China’s per-capita productivity. I’d also be curious to know how easy it is to share productivity gains with others (e.g. the Internet).


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