Big Picture forecasts China overtaking the US in GDP in 20 years.
Resource competition for econmic growth will dominate relations over this time. I think China has a good story simply because of the size of their population. I am less optimistic because their one child policy means that 12% of their population will be over 65 in 20 years. On the other hand anti-aging technology may net them a win here in any case.
I’d be more interested in forecasts of China’s per-capita productivity. I’d also be curious to know how easy it is to share productivity gains with others (e.g. the Internet).