China Agggresion Update

The Japan Times says Japan is preparing for attack by China:

The Defense Agency has prepared a plan to defend the southern remote islands off Kyushu and Okinawa from possible invasion amid rising security concerns about China, according to documents obtained Saturday by Kyodo News.

The agency compiled the plan in November on the assumption of an invasion of the islands located within a 1,000-km zone between the southern end of Kyushu and Taiwan.

Thousands of islands are scattered in the area. The Senkaku Islands, claimed by both Japan and China, are among them.

The plan calls for a dispatch of 55,000 troops from the Ground Self-Defense Force as well as planes, warships and submarines from the main islands in the event the remote islands are attacked.
[…]
“China has been expanding its scope of activities as seen in the case of an incursion of Japanese territorial waters (by a Chinese nuclear submarine) in November. We need to monitor its moves,” the official said.
[…]
In September, the agency presented scenarios of Chinese invasions of Japan. A report listed possible attack scenarios by China, including a territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands and illegal operations by Beijing over maritime resources in the East China Sea.

The Ground Staff Office of the GSDF previously drafted a plan to cope with cross-strait military conflicts between China and Taiwan. But the new defense plan is the first penned by the agency on the assumption of an invasion of the southern remote islands.

I found this article via this, but the page has dissapeared. He noted that it was extremely odd for this information to be leaked and was wondering what was really going on.

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3 Responses to China Agggresion Update

  1. ooghe says:

    what might be going on is that someone has leaked this information in order to gauge the political reaction within the Diet. I would be curious to know to what extent did this scenario include US forces- the guarantors of Japanese security- and whether an operation of that scale is permitted under Article 9 of the Japanese constitution.

  2. Paul says:

    If the US-Japan Security Treaty is constitutional, then surely a defense of Japan’s own borders is constituional.

  3. ooghe says:

    more what I’m getting at is that I think the Japanese defense forces had been organized primarily to defend Hokkaido, the nearby northern island, from Soviet invasion. If they’re now supposing a chinese threat to far flung islands, they’re probably going to need a significantly more robust ability to project power overseas- or what’s called a ‘blue water navy’. That would indeed be a loaded political football, and one that would definitely require some jawboning about article 9 within a legislature that’s very skittish about remilitarization. I’m sure that Japan’s defense of it’s own borders isn’t unconstitutional per se, but the US-Japan Security Treaty was set up to smooth over the grey areas of what ‘ defense of it’s own borders’ entailed- I think Japan still technically claims the remote island of Iwo Jima for instance- but Japan isn’t prepared to militarily defend it without the US.

    Eventually, Japan will want to remilitarize and will need to make changes to the wording of article 9 to do so. Aside from China, another big worry is that Korea unifies and posseses nuclear arms and a combined military ten times bigger than Japan. So, I think this leak might just be there as ‘writing on the wall’- but that the intended audience is as likely to be japanese lawmakers as it is other governments.

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