Great post by Randy McDonald analyzing European demographic trends and showing why projections of Europe’s demise are greatly exagerated.
Why? Well, rates of immigration are high enough, but the main factor is the high Muslim birth rate. In the context of a generalized European birth dearth, high fertility rates on the part of Muslim immigrants will inevitably lead to a replacement of the native European population by non-natives. We’ve seen this before, of course, in such sterling examples as the success of the French Canadians in assimilating eastern Canada and New England, the Italian absorption of France and Argentina, the irreversible Russification of the outer republics of the Soviet Union, the ongoing Mexican conquest of California and Texas, et cetera.
First question of the day: Does anyone see a problem with the above historical summary?
A question should be asked: Just why is Islam in 21st century France supposed to develop so differently from Catholicism in America? Even if you did accept the thesis–questionable, as I’ll demonstrate–that France will shortly accumulate a huge Muslim minority, why should Islam not change over time like American Catholicism? After all, as I’ve pointed out already, Roman Catholic dogmas have as many problems with modernity as Islamic ones, yet they’ve changed.
The suggestions of The Economist that there are a bit over four million French Muslims seem to be more sensible and generally accepted. This amounts to roughly 7% of the French population–a significant number, to be sure, but not an overwhelming majority.
That being said demographics do matter. I believe there is substantial evidence that one of the main reasons Christianity overtook Western Europe was a dramatic failure to breed on the part of the pagans (see Rob’s posting on this issue over at business pundit).
Given the available evidence that secular people (and especially liberated women) don’t breed and the historical dominance of religion and the oppression of women (despite its apparent maladaptive irrationality and despite prior eras of rationality), it seems reasonable to believe that secularism and woman’s rights peridiocally flourishes, causes birth-dirths, and then dies out leaving only religious people who oppress women and therefore breed.
The question for Europe and the US is whether modern secularism can infect immigrant religious populations faster than they breed (relative to the majority populations). But, if secularism causes infertility, eventually only the religious will survive (unless the secular people memocide them first!).